Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BB 0xbbca…7f63 other 49 markets active 21h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$4
politics 16% +$1
world 10% $0
economics 10% −$1
sports 7% +$9
finance 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
weather 1% +$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 0% -9.2%
all 48 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 4% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 4% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage532d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $41 +$3 +8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $21 −$2 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $75 +$6 +8%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $164 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $251 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $228 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $229 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 06 $2 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $16 $0 +2%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $17 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in April? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025? Apr 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +2%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Mar 04 $15 −$1 -4%
UC San Diego vs. CSU Bakersfield Mar 03 $2 +$3 +133%
Monmouth vs. Stony Brook Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas State vs. UL Monroe Mar 03 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jan 05 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $33 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 6d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $53 50d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 50d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $59 50d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 50d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $47 50d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 50d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 90¢ $81 51d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $40 52d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 52d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.21 · official $4.21 (match) · 136 history records