Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbbce…ca75 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%87W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
other 0% +$1
tech 0% −$6
economics 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 20% -9.3%
≤90d 27 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 88 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses87 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage235d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 9? May 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 6? May 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? May 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $148 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? May 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 30 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? Apr 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $113 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March? Apr 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 8? Mar 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 6? Mar 06 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 3? Feb 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on February 1 Feb 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $104 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $114 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $111 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $105 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $107 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $105 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 43d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? BUY No 87¢ $3 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $5 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $103 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $97 56d
Will NVIDIA dip to $148 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 60d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $3 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $102 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $103 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 67d
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $109 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $113 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $105 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $101 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $102 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $104 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $104 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $101 90d
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March? BUY No 99¢ $6 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $108 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.28 · official $113.28 (match) · 183 history records