Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbcf…8271 weather 99 markets active 19h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 84L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$22
other 8% +$2
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.7% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 33 +0.6% -9.0% 18% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 96 +21.1% +9.6% 12% 2% -8.1%
all 96 +21.1% +9.6% 12% 2% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 2% -8.1%
10% -0.9% 2% -16.9%
15% -10.5% 2% -24.9%
20% -19.3% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×181.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.0 per $1 lost it wins $26.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage47d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 1? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? May 31 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on May 30? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 27? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 5 May 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 17? May 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 16? May 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 16? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 13? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 12? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 12? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 12? May 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 12? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY Yes $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY Yes $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 92¢ $9 8d
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June BUY Yes $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY No $0 9d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 7? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $13 10d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.70 · official $49.70 (match) · 310 history records