Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbd0…4906 crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$149
sports 31% +$11
other 2% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +3.5% -6.4% 41% 41% -22.3%
≤30d 75 +3.5% -6.4% 41% 41% -22.3%
≤90d 75 +3.5% -6.4% 41% 41% -22.3%
all 75 +3.5% -6.4% 41% 41% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 41% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 40% -29.7%
15% -23.5% 39% -36.5%
20% -31.0% 33% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$36 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$25 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$20 +69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 −$66 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$35 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$18 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$11 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$15 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$12 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$22 +119%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$9 +126%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16 +$27 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $29 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 3h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 39¢ $19 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 30¢ $51 11h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $51 11h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 59¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $29 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records