Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbd0…9815 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-9%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$16
14 days−$17
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$28
other 37% −$84
crypto 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +22.5% +10.9% 45% 45% -16.0%
≤30d 41 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 39% -32.4%
≤90d 53 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 45% -22.0%
all 67 -7.4% -16.2% 46% 46% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -19.3%
10% -24.2% 40% -27.0%
15% -31.6% 37% -34.1%
20% -38.3% 28% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage150d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 42¢ 42¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 +$49 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$33 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +244%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +124%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $51 −$48 -95%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $26 −$14 -55%
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $42 −$6 -13%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $16 +$2 +13%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $30 +$21 +70%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $30 +$19 +61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 25? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $43 +$15 +35%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $19 +$12 +62%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $30 +$11 +36%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $25 +$14 +55%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $31 +$4 +14%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $152 −$32 -21%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $25 +$5 +22%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $30 +$20 +65%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 20h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $20 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $155 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $91 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 52¢ $5 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.90 · official $56.90 (match) · 174 history records