Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbd9…44de world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 31% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage304d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $107 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $64 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $23 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 -15%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $31 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $31 $0 -1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 08 $35 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $2 $0 -15%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $24 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $13 11h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $12 11h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $5 11h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $14 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $16 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $16 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $15 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $12 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $22 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.90 · official $30.90 (match) · 163 history records