Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BB 0xbbd9…fd91 crypto 1826 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%1538W / 515L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day86.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,067
7 days−$989
14 days−$890
30 days−$880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$182
other 23% −$13
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 846 -32.2% -38.6% 59% 26% -33.4%
≤30d 2053 -12.5% -20.8% 75% 34% -19.1%
≤90d 2053 -12.5% -20.8% 75% 34% -19.1%
all 2053 -12.5% -20.8% 75% 34% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 34% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 16% -26.9%
15% -35.3% 7% -33.9%
20% -41.7% 3% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1538 / 515
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2053 / 1826
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day86.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2053 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 93¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Vanta IPO before 2027? No 93¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 3? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.56 · official $35.56 (match) · 3500 history records