Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

BB 0xbbda…b619 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$26 (+31%) realized +$27 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip

Net edge+57%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day14.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+69.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+87.5%	+69.7%	43%	43%	+17.8%
≤30d	21	+87.5%	+69.7%	43%	43%	+17.8%
≤90d	21	+87.5%	+69.7%	43%	43%	+17.8%
all	21	+87.5%	+69.7%	43%	43%	+17.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+69.7%	43%	+17.8%
10%	+53.4%	43%	+6.5%
15%	+38.6%	43%	-3.8%
20%	+25.0%	43%	-13.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +88% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +140% → late +40% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage2d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day14.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-44%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$1	$0	−$0 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$3	+$10	+320%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 15	$2	$0	-0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$3	+$4	+123%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$2	+$10	+509%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime?	Jun 15	$10	+$8	+79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
United States to win the second half?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-95%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 14	$2	+$15	+712%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	+$3	+140%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$2	+$6	+276%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$2	+$12	+596%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on	Jun 13	$11	−$11	-100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$3	+$6	+178%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$13	48m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	SELL Yes	26¢	$2	49m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$7	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime?	SELL No	100¢	$18	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime?	BUY No	55¢	$10	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$3	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	23¢	$3	2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY No	73¢	$10	13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	46¢	$1	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	45¢	$4	23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	37h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	37h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	37h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	37h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	37h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	2d
United States to win the second half?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	2d
Paraguay to score first vs. United States?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$2	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 51 history records