Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BB 0xbbdd…c26a sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,791 (+8%) realized +$1,819 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%68W / 131L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$575
14 days+$548
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$2,718
other 47% −$1,327
world 2% +$157
crypto 2% −$54
politics 1% +$45
finance 0% −$9
culture 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.9% +0.3% 52% 52% +19.0%
≤30d 54 -9.2% -17.9% 41% 41% -11.7%
≤90d 199 -16.0% -24.0% 34% 33% -3.1%
all 199 -16.0% -24.0% 34% 33% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 33% -3.1%
10% -31.3% 32% -12.4%
15% -37.9% 32% -20.8%
20% -44.0% 29% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$85 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,082
Realized+$1,819
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses68 / 131
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions17
Markets (closed)199 / 216
History coverage86d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $200 $310 +$110 (+55%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $240 $205 −$35 (-15%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $29 −$21 (-41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $22 −$28 (-55%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $4 −$46 (-91%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$85 +414%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $152 +$142 +93%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $41 +$28 +70%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$23 -45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $31 +$48 +158%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $101 +$38 +38%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $20 +$54 +262%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $203 +$155 +76%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $51 +$199 +389%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $153 −$150 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $202 +$136 +67%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $103 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $305 +$377 +124%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $407 −$400 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $102 +$98 +97%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 23h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $71 29h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $51 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 47h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $152 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $83 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $71 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 4d
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,082.08 · official $1,082.08 (match) · 441 history records