Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbbdf…b8a0 sports 1529 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-4%) realized −$318 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%779W / 748L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day195.2pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days+$468
14 days+$562
30 days+$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$202
other 17% +$388
crypto 1% +$408
world 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 548 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 49% -1.8%
≤30d 1527 -2.7% -12.0% 51% 51% -3.7%
≤90d 1527 -2.7% -12.0% 51% 51% -3.7%
all 1527 -2.7% -12.0% 51% 51% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover195.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 51% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 50% -13.0%
15% -28.1% 29% -21.4%
20% -35.1% 16% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$318
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses779 / 748
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1527 / 1529
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day195.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-05-08? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Boston Red Sox 28¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $205 +$66 +32%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$24 +99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $29 +$20 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -19%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $67 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$45 +982%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$29 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $34 +$26 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $32 +$28 +90%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $12 +$88 +712%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $12 +$88 +712%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $109 +$91 +83%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $26 +$24 +90%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $31 +$469 +1521%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $229 −$229 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $197 +$40 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $239 +$106 +44%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $155 +$41 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $55 −$41 -74%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $660 +$104 +16%
Raducanu vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: FearX vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Johnson vs. Trouve: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Johnson (-1.5) vs O'connell (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Osorio vs. Oliveira: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 +$5 +226%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Dziki Warszawa vs. Arka Gdynia Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 98¢ $10 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 98¢ $32 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 98¢ $7 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 68¢ $68 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $10 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $205 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $7 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $3 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 8h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 87¢ $65 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $34 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $67 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $32 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 39h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 39h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.52 · official $2.52 (match) · 3500 history records