Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BB 0xbbdf…300d other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$862 (+18%) realized +$867 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days+$353
14 days+$353
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$616
tech 30% +$232
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +54.6% +39.9% 100% 100% +39.9%
≤30d 3 +70.4% +54.2% 100% 100% +39.5%
≤90d 6 +109.2% +89.3% 100% 83% +38.8%
all 12 +57.1% +42.1% 75% 67% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.1% 67% +16.8%
10% +28.5% 67% +5.7%
15% +16.1% 58% -4.5%
20% +4.7% 33% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +109% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$42 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.19 per $1 lost it wins $11.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized+$867
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage167d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $630 $625 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $647 +$353 +55%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? May 31 $120 +$50 +42%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 26 $20 +$23 +115%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Apr 23 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Apr 22 $768 +$106 +14%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $203 +$11 +5%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $258 +$110 +43%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 19 $515 +$224 +43%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 26 $510 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 02 $526 +$53 +10%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 25 $512 −$78 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $637 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $647 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $75 21d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $35 21d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $60 21d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 25d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 25d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 25d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $56 25d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes $3 59d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY Yes $0 60d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY Yes $2 60d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 55¢ $338 60d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 55¢ $15 61d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 43¢ $1 84d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 43¢ $6 84d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 43¢ $6 84d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 43¢ $6 84d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 43¢ $6 84d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 27¢ $20 88d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 23¢ $1 88d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 80¢ $368 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 56¢ $258 90d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $128 91d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $74 91d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 29¢ $0 93d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 29¢ $0 93d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 40¢ $10 93d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 40¢ $5 93d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 40¢ $8 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.00 · official $625.00 (match) · 114 history records