Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbe2…6158 sports 1014 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$559 (-2%) realized −$576 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%562W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$682
14 days−$1,324
30 days−$918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$646
other 1% −$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -51.8% -56.4% 30% 30% -61.5%
≤30d 86 -22.8% -30.1% 48% 48% -33.0%
≤90d 674 -19.2% -26.9% 46% 46% -26.0%
all 1009 -1.1% -10.6% 56% 56% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 56% -11.9%
10% -19.1% 55% -20.3%
15% -26.9% 54% -28.0%
20% -34.1% 42% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$33 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$576
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses562 / 447
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1009 / 1014
History coverage151d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1009 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Miami Marlins 56¢ 70¢ $39 $49 +$10 (+26%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) New York Yankees 65¢ 78¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+20%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) New York Mets 67¢ 66¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 63¢ 64¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 63¢ 62¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 21 $39 +$21 +52%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 20 $39 +$21 +52%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 20 $39 +$22 +55%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$1 -5%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 18 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $206 −$103 -50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$21 +52%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 +$18 +46%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $39 +$17 +44%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 14 $39 +$18 +46%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $39 +$23 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $39 +$24 +62%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 13 $39 +$21 +52%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 13 $39 +$23 +60%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $39 +$18 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 67¢ $39 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $35 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $35 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $40 1h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $39 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 65¢ $39 26h
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 58¢ $30 47h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 64¢ $39 47h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 52¢ $29 47h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 65¢ $39 47h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $30 47h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $39 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 68¢ $39 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 59¢ $39 4d
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 67¢ $39 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $3 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 53¢ $99 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $131 4d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $39 4d
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 68¢ $39 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 63¢ $39 4d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 65¢ $39 4d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 64¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.69 · official $203.69 (match) · 2257 history records