Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbbe2…43b2 other 29 markets active 16h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$388 (+50%) realized +$388 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$145
14 days+$382
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$61
sports 30% +$145
politics 13% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +33.6% +20.9% 29% 29% +16.1%
≤30d 29 +22.2% +10.5% 28% 28% +35.5%
≤90d 29 +22.2% +10.5% 28% 28% +35.5%
all 29 +22.2% +10.5% 28% 28% +35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 28% +35.5%
10% -0.0% 28% +22.5%
15% -9.7% 28% +10.7%
20% -18.6% 28% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$24 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$388
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage17d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$55 +216%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$93 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$252 +980%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC end in a draw? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $26 +$64 +249%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 03 $104 +$298 +287%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 44h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $26 4d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes $26 5d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 6d
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 6d
Will Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 7d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 7d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records