Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbe3…6872 sports 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$166 (-13%) realized −$164 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%75W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day80.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$180
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$136
weather 15% −$79
other 12% +$10
crypto 3% +$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -11.1% -19.6% 31% 29% -21.3%
≤30d 250 -13.5% -21.7% 30% 28% -21.6%
≤90d 250 -13.5% -21.7% 30% 28% -21.6%
all 250 -13.5% -21.7% 30% 28% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 28% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 22% -29.1%
15% -36.1% 18% -36.0%
20% -42.3% 13% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses75 / 175
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)250 / 230
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day80.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ 50¢ $36 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hersonissos 2: Stefan Dostanic vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Spread: Hornets (-4.5) Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 19? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 19? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Predators vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 19? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Red Wings vs. Lightning Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Antalya 3: Veronika Erjavec vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Heat vs. Hornets Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Hersonissos 2: Petr Nesterov vs Maxim Mrva Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Celtics vs. Thunder Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on March 18 Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 25? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $9 +$1 +15%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $4 −$2 -39%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 −$11 -44%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao Jun 25 $4 +$1 +35%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Jun 25 $4 +$5 +132%
ITF Maanshan: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang Jun 25 $4 +$1 +16%
ITF Maanshan: Marianna Shikhanova vs Anna Snigireva Jun 25 $21 −$10 -48%
ITF Wuning: Xirui Han vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 25 $25 −$22 -90%
ITF Maanshan: Maria Kalyakina vs Eva Marie Desvignes Jun 25 $4 +$1 +19%
ITF Sapporo: Rira Kosaka vs Ying Zhang Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Wuning: Arvid Nordquist vs Yuta Kawahashi Jun 25 $4 +$2 +40%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sara Yoshida Jun 25 $4 $0 +8%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 42°C on June 26? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 41°C on June 26? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $10 −$8 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $22 −$19 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 25 $22 −$19 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -74%
ITF Maanshan: Tiana Tian Deng vs Jing-Jing Lu Jun 25 $4 −$2 -38%
ITF Wuning: Ye Chen vs Geun Jun Kim Jun 25 $4 −$3 -69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $4 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $37 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $20 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $1 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $11 4h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $2 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $1 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $4 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $4 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $4 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 72¢ $4 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $4 24h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 24h
Will Solana reach $70 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $4 31h
Will Solana reach $70 on June 25? BUY No 86¢ $5 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $5 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $5 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $5 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $5 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $5 31h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 35h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 39h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 40h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 40h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 40h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 40h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 40h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.79 · official $38.93 (match) · 770 history records