Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbe5…f51f sports 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%33W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 24% −$3
politics 22% −$2
crypto 9% −$2
economics 6% $0
culture 6% $0
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses33 / 209
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage175d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $35 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $34 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $63 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $31 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 28 $34 $0 -1%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $188 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 20 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $36 2h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $26 12d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $26 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $34 25d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $35 25d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $33 38d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $33 38d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $34 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $34 83d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $34 83d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $34 83d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 83d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 83d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $27 83d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $27 83d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $34 83d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $34 84d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 84d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 84d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $31 84d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $31 84d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 84d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 84d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 84d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 85d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $30 85d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $27 85d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $3 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $31 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 94¢ $31 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.84 · official $35.84 (match) · 906 history records