Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbbe7…ffc9 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,398 (+22%) realized +$1,141 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$396
7 days−$396
14 days−$104
30 days+$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$119
crypto 19% −$86
politics 18% +$1,555
sports 13% −$309
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -16.8% -24.8% 33% 33% -25.3%
≤30d 57 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 37% +9.1%
≤90d 57 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 37% +9.1%
all 57 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 37% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 37% +9.1%
10% -22.3% 33% -1.4%
15% -29.8% 30% -10.9%
20% -36.7% 30% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$53 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,557
Realized+$1,141
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage25d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $1,270 $1,538 +$268 (+21%)
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $18 $7 −$11 (-61%)
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $88 +$308 +350%
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Jun 27 $91 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $80 −$77 -96%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $95 +$65 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $165 −$159 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$16 +152%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $56 +$210 +377%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $90 −$78 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$10 -64%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $112 +$132 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$47 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$58 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$24 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +124%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting? Jun 26 $38 −$11 -30%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $137 −$137 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$47 -95%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos Jun 26 $47 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$54 -92%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $57 −$18 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $729 +$160 +22%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $171 +$129 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 86¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $41 1h
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 35¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $80 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $4 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,556.97 · official $1,556.97 (match) · 258 history records