Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbbea…e2b0 politics 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$161 (+0%) realized +$2,226 · open −$2,065
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%89W / 99L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$24,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days+$400
14 days−$5,658
30 days−$2,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$6,996
politics 28% −$6,651
other 12% +$194
sports 2% +$53
crypto 2% −$379
economics 1% −$191
weather 1% −$146
culture 0% −$23
tech 0% −$112
finance 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +87.7% +69.8% 100% 100% +94.5%
≤30d 5 +39.2% +25.9% 80% 80% -26.3%
≤90d 36 -20.2% -27.8% 39% 33% -1.7%
all 188 -15.3% -23.4% 47% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 34% -7.8%
10% -30.7% 28% -16.6%
15% -37.4% 20% -24.7%
20% -43.5% 17% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$191 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$24,213
Realized+$2,226
Unrealized−$2,065
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses89 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 195
History coverage604d
Avg bet$587
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 80¢ $12,898 $13,520 +$622 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 66¢ 44¢ $7,959 $5,239 −$2,721 (-34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,465 $3,566 +$100 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $860 $984 +$124 (+14%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $690 $668 −$22 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 22¢ 10¢ $330 $140 −$190 (-58%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $76 $98 +$23 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $86 +$29 +34%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $262 +$371 +142%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6,134 −$6,059 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $3,371 +$3,392 +101%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,178 +$221 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $101 +$203 +200%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $18,931 +$5,107 +27%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 08 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 08 $320 +$139 +43%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 235m? May 07 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 240m? May 07 $14 +$48 +354%
Palantir total customers above 1060 in Q1? May 05 $378 +$40 +11%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4? Apr 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during NCAA National Champions remarks on Ap Apr 22 $186 +$146 +78%
Will Trump say "Iran" during NCAA National Champions remarks on April Apr 22 $22 +$40 +186%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha Apr 21 $8 −$8 -97%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Apr 21 $750 +$60 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $896 +$29 +3%
DoorDash total orders above 900M in Q1? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Robinhood Gold Subscribers above 4.6M in Q1? Apr 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Robinhood Gold Subscribers above 4.8M in Q1? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $890 −$18 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 14 $121 −$38 -31%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Apr 13 $146 −$146 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Mar 27 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Mar 27 $680 −$12 -2%
XRP Up or Down - July 29, 5PM ET Mar 27 $77 −$77 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Mar 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on Mar Mar 15 $15 +$14 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11 Mar 15 $36 +$14 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 10? Mar 15 $18 +$35 +190%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Mar 15 $48 +$16 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Mar 15 $46 +$24 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on Mar Mar 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 11 Mar 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9? Mar 09 $170 +$53 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on Mar Mar 09 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Mar 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 09 $9 +$18 +215%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Mar Mar 09 $75 −$9 -12%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 09 $226 +$34 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $697 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $172 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $607 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $162 26h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $634 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $88 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $360 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $245 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $114 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $310 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $173 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $617 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $67 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $94 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $685 2d
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $28 4d
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 4d
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,213.00 · official $24,213.00 (match) · 659 history records