Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbbf3…112c world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$3
finance 9% $0
sports 3% −$6
other 2% $0
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 30% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 30% 0% -10.3%
all 18 -7.1% -16.0% 44% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -11.5%
10% -24.0% 0% -20.0%
15% -31.3% 0% -27.7%
20% -38.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage484d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 −$3 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump sign 34 or more executive orders in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +6%
UTEP vs. Kennesaw State Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
UNC Wilmington vs. William & Mary Feb 25 $5 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $8 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $13 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $32 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $26 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.19 · official $29.19 (match) · 62 history records