Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc01…3fdd
other · 17 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$11 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage49d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 10 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$10
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+91%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $21 $5 −$16 (-74%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 11 $35 +$28 +81%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $2 +$16 +900%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $5 −$2 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% +$31
other 32% −$14
tech 18% −$8
world 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 34m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 1h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 9h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 40h
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 40h
Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 38¢ $8 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 37¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 38¢ $28 2d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 2d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 49d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 49d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+92.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +52.1% +37.6% 100% 100% +46.2%
≤30d 6 +135.4% +113.0% 50% 50% +16.9%
≤90d 7 +113.2% +92.9% 43% 43% +15.9%
all 7 +113.2% +92.9% 43% 43% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +92.9% 43% +15.9%
10% +74.4% 43% +4.8%
15% +57.6% 29% -5.3%
20% +42.1% 29% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.05 · official $60.05 (match) · 48 history records