Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BC 0xbc02…7b9f other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$458 (-7%) realized −$594 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$474
14 days−$544
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$37
sports 44% −$189
crypto 5% −$156
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 35 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 43% -17.9%
≤90d 35 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 43% -17.9%
all 35 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 43% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 43% -17.9%
10% -32.8% 34% -25.7%
15% -39.3% 23% -32.9%
20% -45.3% 14% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$93 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$594
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 86¢ $276 $413 +$136 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$36 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $250 +$151 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $250 −$235 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$24 -66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$57 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $240 +$90 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $303 −$157 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $180 −$50 -28%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$9 -39%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $130 −$108 -83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $100 +$34 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $502 +$174 +35%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $300 +$123 +41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $170 −$82 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 +$132 +165%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $250 −$33 -13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $463 +$103 +22%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $200 −$49 -24%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $200 −$7 -4%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 11 $200 +$5 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $170 +$34 +20%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $159 +$17 +11%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $100 +$60 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $160 +$138 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $120 +$41 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $112 +$24 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $250 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $150 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $401 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $250 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $250 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $13 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $150 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $80 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $147 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $146 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $240 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $130 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $303 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $180 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $90 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 29¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.56 · official $412.56 (match) · 90 history records