Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc03…c6cf other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$21
crypto 6% −$4
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 31% -8.3%
≤30d 39 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 31% -8.3%
≤90d 39 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 31% -8.3%
all 39 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 31% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 31% -8.3%
10% -29.7% 18% -17.1%
15% -36.5% 13% -25.1%
20% -42.7% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -30%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$5 -49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$10 +51%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$11 -38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 −$57 -33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 +$30 +21%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$45 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 37¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 39¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records