Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc03…1d49 crypto 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-5%) realized −$38 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate81%78W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$78
other 20% −$11
tech 9% +$4
economics 6% +$2
sports 5% $0
politics 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 20% -6.5%
all 96 -10.4% -18.9% 81% 6% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 6% -11.6%
10% -26.7% 1% -20.1%
15% -33.7% 1% -27.8%
20% -40.2% 1% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses78 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage542d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 14¢ $57 $10 −$47 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 07 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in March 2026? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 23 $49 +$6 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 08 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $16 +$1 +4%
USDT depeg in 2025? Jan 06 $2 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $14 $0 +2%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? Jan 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 06 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Dec 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 Dec 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $380 in November? Dec 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Nov 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 05 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 04 $16 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 September 1–7? Sep 15 $16 $0 +0%
Solana reach 240 September 1–7? Sep 15 $18 +$3 +15%
Solana above $160 on August 15? Sep 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5300 August 11–17? Sep 03 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 03 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 03 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin close above $90K on July 31? Aug 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1? Aug 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 21 $21 −$12 -57%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4? Jul 10 $6 $0 +1%
Yoon in jail before July? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $13 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 10 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 18d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 44d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $58 58d
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $57 149d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 165d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 165d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 172d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $19 186d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 198d
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? BUY No 99¢ $18 198d
Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY No 96¢ $21 198d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $19 198d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $15 217d
Will Google reach $380 in November? BUY No 100¢ $15 217d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 217d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $14 227d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $15 227d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 94¢ $13 227d
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? BUY No 99¢ $15 227d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $15 227d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 247d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 259d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 259d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $14 268d
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 89¢ $10 278d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.12 · official $69.12 (match) · 216 history records