Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc06…8d59 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate85%64W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 75% -8.7%
≤30d 75 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 75% -8.7%
≤90d 75 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 75% -8.7%
all 75 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 75% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 75% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 27% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses64 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $17 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $17 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records