Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc07…1cdd crypto 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,417 (+25%) realized +$1,311 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%93W / 48L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$372
7 days+$376
14 days+$372
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$721
sports 37% +$1,151
other 1% −$12
finance 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +82.2% +64.8% 70% 56% +1.0%
≤30d 31 +62.0% +46.6% 65% 48% +0.9%
≤90d 141 +6.9% -3.3% 66% 44% +18.1%
all 141 +6.9% -3.3% 66% 44% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 44% +18.1%
10% -12.6% 33% +6.8%
15% -21.0% 26% -3.5%
20% -28.8% 21% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$1,311
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses93 / 48
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions7
Markets (closed)141 / 150
History coverage74d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 0¢ 52¢ $0 $103 +$103 (+0%)
Will Johnnie LaRossa win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Calgary Flames be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Zizou Bergs 0¢ 84¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kevin Montero win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu Gabriel Ghetu 0¢ 32¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $192 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $138 +$110 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $82 +$52 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $206 +$125 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $146 +$63 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $218 +$199 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $338 −$326 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$32 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$68 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $234 +$263 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $207 +$87 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1 +$2 +134%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $1 +$2 +140%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will Mantova 1911 win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Spezia Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Will UC Sampdoria win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Will FC Südtirol win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 11 $309 +$234 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 08 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 08 $98 −$13 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $71 4m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 82¢ $1 9m
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu BUY Gabriel Ghetu 38¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $46 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 16m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 57¢ $5 17m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 BUY 54¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $155 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $32 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $59 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $24 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $71 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.86 · official $118.99 · 356 history records