Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbc07…24e7 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-26%) realized −$38 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$49
other 6% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -42.3%
≤30d 16 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -42.3%
≤90d 16 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -42.3%
all 16 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 31% -42.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 31% -47.8%
15% -34.2% 25% -52.8%
20% -40.6% 25% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 55¢ 57¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 47¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Up 11¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$9 +422%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$9 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 39m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 11¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.18 · official $29.95 (match) · 88 history records