Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc08…6b85 sports 2218 markets active 3h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$769 (-1%) realized −$834 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%1200W / 994L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$1,094est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$4,146
other 22% +$1,327
world 0% +$134
crypto 0% +$88
finance 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 -23.8% -31.1% 42% 42% -5.3%
≤30d 777 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 56% +3.4%
≤90d 2194 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 55% -6.5%
all 2194 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 55% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 55% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 52% -15.5%
15% -27.5% 43% -23.6%
20% -34.6% 34% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$42 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,772
Realized−$834
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1200 / 994
Est. fees paid−$1,094
Open positions27
Markets (closed)2194 / 2218
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 2194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 60¢ 100¢ $101 $168 +$67 (+67%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 74¢ 76¢ $151 $154 +$3 (+2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $151 $148 −$3 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Anna Blinkova 67¢ 70¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ 53¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 36¢ 40¢ $76 $83 +$7 (+10%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Minnesota Lynx 49¢ 48¢ $76 $73 −$2 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 37¢ 36¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 57¢ $59 $67 +$8 (+14%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 49¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$3 (-5%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 50¢ 46¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 69¢ 64¢ $47 $43 −$3 (-7%)
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Sabine Rutlauka 32¢ 34¢ $39 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 62¢ 100¢ $22 $35 +$13 (+61%)
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 64¢ 67¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Max Alcala Gurri vs. Andres Santamarta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 63¢ 64¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Dane Sweeny vs. Jacob Fearnley: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 61¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Dias vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 69¢ 70¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 63¢ 66¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Carlos Sanchez Jover vs. Alejandro Moro Canas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 57¢ 61¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Gonzalo Bueno vs. Tomasz Berkieta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 66¢ 67¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 75¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 0.75%? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Ognjen Milic 35¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 469 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brasilia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Facundo Acosta Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Bradley Braves Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
KHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Lakers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
NL: Davos vs. Zug Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Bengaluru FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucaramanga: Valerio Aboian vs Garrett Johns Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Asuncion: Franco Roncadelli vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Monte (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champion Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Naples: Andrea Pellegrino vs Filip Jianu Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Panathinaikos Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-03-07? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-16? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-03-09? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
La Union vs. Ferro Carril Oeste Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Ak Bars Kazan Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cu Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
KHL: Spartak Moscow vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cap Cana: Tomas Barrios vs Raphael Collignon Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will USL Dunkerque vs. Stade de Reims end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Antalya 3: Katarzyna Kawa vs Carole Monnet Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Charlotte Checkers Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Santiago: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Daniel Dutra da Silva Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Magda Linette vs. Varvara Gracheva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: BRUTE vs DMG Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Providence Friars vs. Georgetown Hoyas Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 166.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Max Houkes Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Yokkaichi: Renta Tokuda vs August Holmgren Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $75 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 42¢ $17 3h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar BUY Ignacio Buse 29¢ $2 3h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka BUY Sabine Rutlauka 32¢ $40 4h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $77 4h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 67¢ $102 5h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 65¢ $102 6h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $102 7h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $12 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $78 11h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 35¢ $78 13h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 50¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $22 19h
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 20h
Dias vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 69¢ $12 20h
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 79¢ $13 20h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 63¢ $11 20h
Max Alcala Gurri vs. Andres Santamarta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $16 20h
Dane Sweeny vs. Jacob Fearnley: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $15 20h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $60 21h
Gonzalo Bueno vs. Tomasz Berkieta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 66¢ $7 21h
Carlos Sanchez Jover vs. Alejandro Moro Canas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 57¢ $8 21h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic 35¢ $3 22h
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma BUY Madison Brengle 64¢ $25 23h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 59¢ $2 25h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 49¢ $12 29h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 56¢ $102 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $75 29h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 69¢ $47 31h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 52¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,772.40 · official $1,772.58 (match) · 3500 history records