Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc0a…8da3 other 102 markets active 4h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$15
politics 16% −$4
sports 7% −$36
economics 5% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -6.4% -15.3% 8% 5% -9.7%
all 100 -6.4% -15.3% 8% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 5% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 4% -18.4%
15% -30.8% 4% -26.3%
20% -37.6% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage90d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $121 $121 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $324 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $303 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $250 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $488 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $526 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 10 $279 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 4h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $54 6h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 25h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 26h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $121 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 23d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 23d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $69 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $86 28d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 31d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.44 · official $227.68 (match) · 296 history records