trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 50% | 0% | -6.8% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -3.1% | -12.3% | 33% | 0% | -7.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 12% | 0% | -11.4% |
| all | 29 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 21% | 0% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 0% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 0% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 0% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $49 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 27 | $3 | $0 | -12% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 23 | $53 | −$5 | -10% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 22 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 21 | $46 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Dec 16 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | Nov 14 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | Oct 17 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 17 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 14 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 13 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Oct 13 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Oct 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 12 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 12 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 12 | $6 | −$1 | -13% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? | Oct 12 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Oct 12 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 12 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? | Oct 11 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | Oct 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Oct 10 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 10 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | Oct 08 | $24 | $0 | -0% |