Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc0c…06fd crypto 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$48 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate95%102W / 5L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$10
politics 33% +$35
other 1% +$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 24 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 8% -9.2%
all 107 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 12% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 8% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 5% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.44 per $1 lost it wins $5.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses102 / 5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)107 / 112
History coverage614d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 18¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? Jun 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 31 $4 $0 +8%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? May 31 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $138 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 27 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? Apr 19 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? Mar 28 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 22? Mar 23 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 19? Mar 21 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $135 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 10? Mar 11 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 8? Mar 09 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 06 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 17? Feb 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $131 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $128 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $101 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 14d
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $107 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $107 25d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 37d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 37d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? BUY No 92¢ $4 55d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 55d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? BUY No 87¢ $7 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $138 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 68d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 68d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $135 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $142 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $143 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $139 80d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $141 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $141 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $132 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $129 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $133 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $134 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $129 97d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $131 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.88 · official $113.88 (match) · 242 history records