Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc0d…fea7 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-39%) realized −$382 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -47.4% -52.4% 20% 20% -48.7%
≤90d 10 -47.4% -52.4% 20% 20% -48.7%
all 10 -47.4% -52.4% 20% 20% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.4% 20% -48.7%
10% -57.0% 20% -53.6%
15% -61.1% 20% -58.1%
20% -64.9% 20% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$60 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage14d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage DN SOOPers 64¢ 100¢ $75 $117 +$42 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $117 −$4 -3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $94 +$84 +89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $57 +$46 +81%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $101 −$41 -41%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $88 −$86 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $104 −$102 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 64¢ $76 1h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $117 11d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 30¢ $38 12d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $178 12d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $94 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 55¢ $203 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 2¢ $3 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $103 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 54¢ $57 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 1¢ $3 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Cloud9 33¢ $60 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 38¢ $88 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 54¢ $101 13d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $104 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.13 · official $117.13 (match) · 15 history records