Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc0e…5fea other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$257 (+25%) realized +$198 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$253
14 days+$374
30 days+$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$492
sports 7% +$152
politics 4% +$2
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+78.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +135.2% +112.8% 57% 57% +75.1%
≤30d 11 +189.5% +162.0% 64% 64% +114.5%
≤90d 24 +80.6% +63.4% 54% 54% +78.7%
all 29 +97.7% +78.9% 59% 59% +78.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.9% 59% +78.2%
10% +61.8% 59% +61.2%
15% +46.1% 55% +45.6%
20% +31.8% 55% +31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +98% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +98% · $-wt +97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +139% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$9 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.59 per $1 lost it wins $6.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 44
History coverage123d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $120 $156 +$36 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $120 $144 +$24 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 27 $26 +$78 +304%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $19 +$96 +492%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $43 −$5 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $51 +$91 +180%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$18 -35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $13 +$73 +545%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $64 +$140 +219%
Bamba Dieng: Anytime Goalscorer May 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $16 +$16 +101%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8 +$8 +105%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? May 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $9 +$10 +110%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $27 +$23 +85%
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Mar 23 $30 +$18 +59%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 21 $2 $0 -7%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $3 +$15 +488%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Mar 16 $4 +$12 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 57¢ $65 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $10 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 42¢ $50 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL 22¢ $26 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W BUY 22¢ $15 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 24¢ $30 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL 37¢ $38 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY $6 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 40¢ $43 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY $4 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 35¢ $51 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $33 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 24¢ $26 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will England win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $47 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 11¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $13 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 21¢ $15 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 19¢ $20 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 16¢ $19 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $10 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 16¢ $15 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 11¢ $3 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 20¢ $10 13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 17¢ $10 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.37 · official $314.02 · 161 history records