Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc0f…fb6f sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,952 (+25%) realized +$2,191 · open −$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,839
other 34% −$232
crypto 1% +$61
world 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 52% +20.0%
≤30d 33 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 52% +20.0%
≤90d 33 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 52% +20.0%
all 33 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 52% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 52% +20.0%
10% -16.0% 48% +8.5%
15% -24.1% 45% -2.0%
20% -31.6% 42% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$70 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,112
Realized+$2,191
Unrealized−$239
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $450 $446 −$4 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $450 $445 −$5 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 25¢ $450 $221 −$230 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,596 −$54 -3%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $204 −$135 -66%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $204 +$214 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $407 +$281 +69%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$467 +92%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$27 -59%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $58 +$37 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $205 +$274 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $204 +$206 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $54 −$44 -82%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $57 −$39 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 +$158 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$61 +60%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $112 −$108 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $157 +$20 +12%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $108 −$55 -51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $221 −$146 -66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $551 +$558 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$78 +76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$56 -55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$144 +71%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$95 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $457 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $457 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $457 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,542 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,596 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $64 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $200 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $204 30h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $204 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $407 30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $101 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $103 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $204 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $203 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $95 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $56 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $7 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,111.74 · official $1,111.74 (match) · 109 history records