Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc0f…cb83 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-9%) realized −$21 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -91% what you keep after slip
Net edge-91%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$73
crypto 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-91.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -91.3%
≤30d 2 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -91.3%
≤90d 2 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -91.3%
all 2 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -91.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -91.4% 0% -91.3%
10% -92.2% 0% -92.1%
15% -93.0% 0% -92.9%
20% -93.7% 0% -93.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -90% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)2 / 19
History coverage17d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $61 $70 +$9 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $23 $65 +$42 (+188%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $51 $25 −$26 (-51%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $45 $24 −$21 (-48%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $8 −$9 (-55%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-64%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $16 −$15 -91%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$18 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 54m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 10d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 12d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 17d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 17d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 17d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 17d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.43 · official $458.68 (match) · 52 history records