Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc13…5eb6 weather 1230 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,104 (-40%) realized −$16,146 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate73%894W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day64.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$2,677
crypto 6% −$817
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -8.2% -17.0% 79% 23% -12.2%
≤30d 576 -9.0% -17.7% 74% 31% -19.0%
≤90d 1229 -7.0% -15.8% 73% 43% -17.5%
all 1229 -7.0% -15.8% 73% 43% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 43% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 13% -25.4%
15% -31.2% 4% -32.6%
20% -38.0% 3% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$26 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$16,146
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses894 / 335
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1229 / 1230
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 64¢ 82¢ $149 $191 +$42 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $266 +$123 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$11 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$15 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$17 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $53 −$51 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $19 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$18 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $389 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 26¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $41 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.19 · official $190.96 (match) · 3500 history records