Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc15…03d8 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,708 (-24%) realized −$1,728 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$78
14 days+$17
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,187
other 29% −$526
politics 12% −$43
crypto 1% +$274
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +22.8% +11.1% 47% 47% -6.7%
≤30d 24 +5.2% -4.8% 42% 42% -20.0%
≤90d 42 -13.5% -21.7% 36% 31% -30.4%
all 42 -13.5% -21.7% 36% 31% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 31% -30.4%
10% -29.2% 29% -37.1%
15% -36.0% 21% -43.1%
20% -42.3% 17% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$101 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1,728
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 60
History coverage48d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 10¢ 30¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+195%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $399 −$232 -58%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $490 −$90 -18%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $400 +$90 +23%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in Jun 21 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $94 +$274 +291%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 +$34 +116%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $199 −$198 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $103 +$152 +148%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $308 +$140 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 −$29 -29%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $90 +$36 +40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $87 +$21 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $19 +$68 +347%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $63 +$18 +28%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $300 −$297 -99%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $556 −$256 -46%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $162 +$114 +70%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $80 −$11 -13%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $589 −$579 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $238 −$235 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $196 +$42 +21%
Santos FC vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $257 −$256 -99%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 17 $473 +$3 +0%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $131 −$129 -98%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $208 +$132 +64%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $63 −$61 -98%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $93 +$89 +95%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $298 −$22 -7%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $92 −$22 -24%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $13 −$1 -11%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $74 −$9 -12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal BUY 2¢ $4 45m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Wi BUY 21¢ $164 48m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $167 54m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $399 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $400 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $490 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $490 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $400 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in SELL 7¢ $9 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in BUY 11¢ $15 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 4¢ $15 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $29 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21 BUY 10¢ $30 29h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20 BUY 4¢ $21 38h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 3¢ $19 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $94 38h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $199 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $55 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 41¢ $255 46h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Un BUY 37¢ $98 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $103 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $448 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $70 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $308 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $100 3d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 2¢ $5 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $90 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 6¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.50 · official $193.56 · 107 history records