Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc17…31b0 sports 881 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-3%) realized −$165 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate63%532W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day195.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$71
14 days−$241
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$81
crypto 36% −$196
weather 13% +$14
world 9% +$15
other 2% +$3
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 16% -12.2%
≤30d 845 -6.5% -15.4% 63% 28% -13.6%
≤90d 845 -6.5% -15.4% 63% 28% -13.6%
all 845 -6.5% -15.4% 63% 28% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover195.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 28% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 24% -21.9%
15% -30.9% 19% -29.4%
20% -37.7% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses532 / 313
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions36
Markets (closed)845 / 881
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day195.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 845 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $14 $21 +$8 (+55%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 70¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 54¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Qatari" during G7 events? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 28m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 14¢ $1 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.15 · official $209.61 (match) · 3500 history records