Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

BC 0xbc18…fa69 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate82%14W / 3L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day37.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-0.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+9.5%	-0.9%	82%	41%	-1.7%
≤30d	17	+9.5%	-0.9%	82%	41%	-1.7%
≤90d	17	+9.5%	-0.9%	82%	41%	-1.7%
all	17	+9.5%	-0.9%	82%	41%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-0.9%	41%	-1.7%
10% ← realistic here	-10.4%	18%	-11.1%
15%	-19.0%	6%	-19.7%
20%	-27.0%	0%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 35% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

43% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late +7% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.4 per $1 lost it wins $7.4

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses14 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day37.0

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 22	$57	+$2	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 22	$55	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 22	$51	+$2	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 22	$41	+$11	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 22	$40	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 22	$36	+$4	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 22	$31	−$3	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 22	$31	+$2	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 22	$31	+$6	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 22	$21	+$7	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 22	$31	+$3	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 22	$15	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 22	$16	+$6	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 22	$16	−$4	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 22	$14	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 22	$14	+$3	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 22	$14	+$1	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	SELL Down	57¢	$58	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$57	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$57	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$55	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	SELL Down	71¢	$54	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$51	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	SELL Down	75¢	$53	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$41	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$41	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$40	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	SELL Down	69¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$36	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Down	72¢	$33	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Down	61¢	$33	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Down	61¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$21	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$17	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$15	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$15	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Down	53¢	$22	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$16	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Down	41¢	$12	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records