Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc19…4b89
other · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$18 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage140d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 4 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Dplus KIA 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? No 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? No 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 15¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The MongolZ win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $1 +$3 +270%
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? Mar 15 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $1 +$5 +488%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -91%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Feb 28 $20 +$1 +5%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $1 +$3 +257%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 18 $1 +$2 +163%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 16 $1 +$27 +2678%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 31 $2 $0 -21%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$1
sports 22% −$5
world 17% −$22
tech 12% −$15
finance 5% +$1
politics 4% +$26
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 11¢ $1 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 15¢ $11 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 76d
Will The MongolZ win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 78d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL No 65¢ $4 88d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 89d
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? BUY No 93¢ $32 96d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 96d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 97d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 3¢ $5 97d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $1 98d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 99d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 100d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 100d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 104d
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? BUY No 29¢ $1 104d
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? BUY No 7¢ $1 104d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 104d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 104d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 104d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 48¢ $1 105d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 42¢ $1 106d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 65¢ $1 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 29% -34.2%
all 39 +5.4% -4.7% 21% 15% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 15% -26.8%
10% -13.8% 15% -33.8%
15% -22.1% 13% -40.2%
20% -29.7% 13% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.42 · official $6.42 (match) · 62 history records