Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc1b…3b5b sports 845 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,863 (+6%) realized +$1,863 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%416W / 429L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$780
other 15% −$830
crypto 8% −$408
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 45% -23.7%
≤30d 41 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 39% +0.2%
≤90d 489 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 49% +2.4%
all 845 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 45% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 45% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 43% -23.6%
15% -29.7% 39% -31.0%
20% -36.6% 35% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,863
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses416 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions0
Markets (closed)845 / 845
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 845 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $111 −$64 -57%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $125 +$175 +140%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$131 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $48 +$52 +108%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$108 +56%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $85 +$115 +136%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $84 +$55 +66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $119 +$131 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $58 +$92 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $140 −$33 -24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$49 +96%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $4 $0 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $104 +$96 +92%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $105 +$95 +90%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $1 $0 +3%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $319 +$266 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $22 −$19 -86%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $12 −$7 -62%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $49 −$23 -48%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $86 +$64 +74%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $14 +$3 +21%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $4 −$2 -64%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $66 +$77 +118%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $3 +$2 +70%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $8 +$2 +18%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $66 +$34 +52%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 21 $74 +$26 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 14¢ $11 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 14¢ $17 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 14¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 20¢ $2 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 20¢ $16 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 35¢ $36 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 35¢ $35 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $41 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $121 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $82 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $39 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $7 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $22 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $22 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $87 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $8 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $24 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records