Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc1c…17d9 sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate64%46W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$41
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$15
sports 18% −$27
other 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +6.1% -4.0% 87% 29% -2.0%
≤30d 72 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 39% -10.7%
≤90d 72 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 39% -10.7%
all 72 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 39% -10.7%
10% -28.9% 22% -19.2%
15% -35.8% 15% -27.0%
20% -42.1% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses46 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)72 / 93
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? No 96¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 25? No 94¢ 96¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 25? No 93¢ 94¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 25? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 25? No 98¢ 97¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 25? No 94¢ 92¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25? No 96¢ 94¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? No 94¢ 90¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? No 93¢ 81¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 25? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+703%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 73¢ 83¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 57¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $52 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 $0 -6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 19 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $50 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $50 27m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $51 30m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $53 31m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $104 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $105 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $53 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.16 · official $518.74 (match) · 156 history records