Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc20…84a5 politics 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,467 (+12%) realized +$2,365 · open −$898
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$357
14 days+$565
30 days+$917
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$18
world 16% +$1,524
other 13% +$81
sports 2% −$137
culture 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +94.9% +76.3% 100% 100% +82.4%
≤30d 7 +59.7% +44.5% 100% 100% +33.9%
≤90d 18 -11.6% -20.0% 56% 56% +7.5%
all 36 -5.2% -14.3% 47% 47% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 47% +12.5%
10% -22.5% 36% +1.7%
15% -30.0% 28% -8.1%
20% -36.8% 25% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$103 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$1,521
Realized+$2,365
Unrealized−$898
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)36 / 48
History coverage403d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $300 $338 +$38 (+13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 25¢ $300 $199 −$101 (-34%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $195 $172 −$22 (-12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $200 $58 −$142 (-71%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 21¢ $200 $5 −$195 (-97%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ $330 $3 −$327 (-99%)
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government? No 17¢ 49¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+190%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 14¢ $143 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 13 $160 +$31 +20%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $191 +$326 +170%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $117 +$38 +32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $800 +$170 +21%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$63 +63%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 27 $380 +$191 +50%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $161 +$99 +61%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? May 08 $100 +$63 +62%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $300 +$120 +40%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Apr 02 $600 +$424 +71%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Apr 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Apr 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucha Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Apr 02 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Mar 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 18 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 08 $50 +$10 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $1,474 +$1,964 +133%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $190 −$176 -93%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $1,214 −$82 -7%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 03 $100 −$97 -97%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 26 $317 −$62 -19%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 26 $200 +$69 +34%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? Jun 24 $424 +$96 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 19 $1,039 −$165 -16%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $66 +$14 +21%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 21 $68 +$256 +376%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $188 +$384 +204%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $117 −$68 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 37m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 42m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 1h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 4d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 5d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 89¢ $9 6d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 89¢ $506 6d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 89¢ $1 6d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 23¢ $155 8d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 33¢ $35 9d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 33¢ $103 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $1 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $29 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $0 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $2 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $2 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $5 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $2 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $13 9d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 32¢ $54 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 32¢ $476 9d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 16d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 16d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 51¢ $130 16d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 43¢ $163 18d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 19d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 20d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $190 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,521.17 · official $1,521.17 (match) · 195 history records