Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BC 0xbc20…8c98 sports 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,831 (+2%) realized +$1,815 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%145W / 154L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$1,224est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$460
other 21% −$1,384
tech 14% +$182
economics 6% −$219
politics 4% +$26
finance 3% −$18
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -42.9% -48.4% 34% 23% -17.0%
≤30d 238 -14.8% -23.0% 41% 35% -14.9%
≤90d 299 -3.7% -12.9% 48% 43% -10.9%
all 299 -3.7% -12.9% 48% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 43% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 37% -19.5%
15% -28.8% 32% -27.2%
20% -35.8% 25% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$115 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$538
Realized+$1,815
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses145 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,224
Open positions3
Markets (closed)299 / 286
History coverage46d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $200 $272 +$72 (+36%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 46¢ $250 $228 −$22 (-9%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 20¢ $72 $39 −$33 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $74 −$74 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $185 +$65 +35%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 19 $1,945 −$120 -6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $1,696 −$203 -12%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $1,666 +$284 +17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $10,410 +$18 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $44 −$8 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 +$6 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $114 +$86 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $285 −$84 -29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $900 −$897 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $329 +$169 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $153 −$89 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $673 −$107 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $240 +$80 +33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $197 +$43 +22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $140 +$60 +43%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $129 +$13 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $112 +$20 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,017 −$102 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $498 −$30 -6%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,542 +$7 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $832 −$832 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $500 +$131 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $250 13m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $72 36m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $71 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 74¢ $1,825 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 72¢ $1,493 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $185 9h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 76¢ $760 13h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 77¢ $385 14h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 80¢ $752 24h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 80¢ $48 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,921 31h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 31h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 80¢ $801 33h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 81¢ $488 33h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 81¢ $407 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $22 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $67 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $16 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $61 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $2 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.13 · official $560.17 · 1396 history records