Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc22…8ec7 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%16W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,765per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$26
other 31% +$3
world 5% +$13
culture 3% −$1
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 22 +0.1% -9.5% 73% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,239) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.51 per $1 lost it wins $6.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$3,285
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage229d
Avg bet$1,765
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,205 $3,207 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3,281 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3,277 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,274 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $3,263 +$7 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 27 $3,239 +$3 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $3,240 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 17 $2,334 +$13 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Mar 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on November 12? Nov 13 $1,196 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 13? Nov 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 12 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,312 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 7? Nov 08 $1,312 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on November Nov 07 $1,310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $1,308 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $1,310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,600 on November 2? Nov 03 $1,309 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $3,205 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,281 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,277 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,274 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1,309 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $499 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $16 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1,445 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $3,263 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,444 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $82 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $55 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $97 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $100 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $82 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,285.04 · official $3,285.02 (match) · 126 history records