Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbc26…15f9 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,626 (-12%) realized −$1,006 · open −$3,620
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,422per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$23,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$350
14 days−$1,180
30 days−$2,228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$5,723
crypto 7% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.9% -0.6% 50% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 5 -56.0% -60.2% 20% 20% -37.6%
≤90d 6 -47.8% -52.8% 17% 17% -34.8%
all 6 -47.8% -52.8% 17% 17% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.8% 17% -34.8%
10% -57.3% 17% -41.0%
15% -61.4% 0% -46.7%
20% -65.2% 0% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$542 vs −$568 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$23,170
Realized−$1,006
Unrealized−$3,620
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)6 / 16
History coverage73d
Avg bet$2,422
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 17¢ $2,275 $4,381 +$2,106 (+93%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6,288 $3,846 −$2,442 (-39%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,261 $3,647 −$614 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $3,641 $3,138 −$502 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2,125 $1,931 −$193 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,232 $1,914 −$319 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,120 $1,650 −$470 (-22%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,219 $1,644 −$574 (-26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $734 $717 −$17 (-2%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $895 $300 −$595 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,994 +$542 +27%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,603 −$193 -7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,558 −$1,524 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1,074 −$1,049 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,045 −$68 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $755 8m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $721 19m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $91 2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $115 2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,744 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2,536 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1,406 4h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,537 6d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,050 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $472 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,550 13d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,074 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,192 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,258 24d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 24d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $910 28d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $141 34d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,000 36d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 37d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $390 41d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $352 45d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $311 53d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $310 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,169.85 · official $23,172.68 (match) · 127 history records