Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc29…107f other 49 markets active 7h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$13
politics 19% −$17
other 3% −$11
crypto 1% +$2
sports 1% −$3
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -2.0% -11.3% 21% 12% -10.7%
all 47 -1.6% -11.0% 21% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 9% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 9% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 9% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage602d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $6 +$9 +172%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $7 +$9 +119%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $7 +$4 +59%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $42 $0 +1%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 05 $78 +$2 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $78 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $13,533 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $256 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $952 −$5 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $893 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 23 $1,080 −$8 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 6h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 7h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 28h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 31h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 34h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.78 · official $50.78 (match) · 264 history records