Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc29…b3b6 weather 984 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$290 (+3%) realized +$261 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%558W / 412L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$6
14 days+$137
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 41% +$302
crypto 22% −$77
sports 13% +$45
politics 8% +$26
other 6% −$97
world 6% +$37
finance 2% +$38
culture 1% −$3
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 34% -10.0%
≤30d 309 -2.7% -12.0% 61% 51% -5.1%
≤90d 798 +2.4% -7.3% 59% 45% -6.8%
all 970 -0.8% -10.3% 58% 42% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 42% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 27% -16.3%
15% -26.7% 20% -24.4%
20% -33.9% 13% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses558 / 412
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions14
Markets (closed)970 / 984
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 970 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $29 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 25¢ 100¢ $6 $25 +$18 (+295%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $3 $24 +$21 (+840%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 73¢ 99¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+36%)
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 27¢ 92¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+241%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+1982%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 52¢ 14¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 65¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 68¢ 8¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-88%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 18¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $39 +$21 +53%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 +$33 +768%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $37 −$22 -59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$4 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $28 +$17 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 +$34 +115%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $38 +$9 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $19 +$11 +54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$21 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 +$14 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $16 +$2 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $38 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 -72%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$5 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 −$23 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$11 +131%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$7 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $33 −$6 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 +$6 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 14¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 18¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 37¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 37¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 21¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 18¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.37 · official $138.34 (match) · 3500 history records