Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc2f…d8f2
sports · 22 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$14 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage68d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 5 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +246%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $3 $0 -6%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 07 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $4 $0 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 06 $4 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Apr 05 $4 $0 -11%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $7 +$3 +42%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 1 Winner Apr 05 $5 +$2 +48%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 05 $3 $0 +12%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 05 $2 +$2 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$15
sports 45% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $7 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 35h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 66d
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 66d
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 66d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha SELL TEC Esports 45¢ $7 66d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha BUY TEC Esports 23¢ $3 66d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 66d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 67d
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha BUY TYLOO 52¢ $5 67d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G SELL Inner Circle Esports 52¢ $2 68d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G SELL Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $2 68d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G BUY Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $4 68d
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $10 68d
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $3 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +49.5% +35.3% 60% 60% +20.8%
≤30d 5 +49.5% +35.3% 60% 60% +20.8%
≤90d 17 +12.5% +1.8% 47% 47% -11.4%
all 17 +12.5% +1.8% 47% 47% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 47% -11.4%
10% -8.0% 41% -19.9%
15% -16.9% 41% -27.6%
20% -25.0% 24% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.08 · official $17.08 (match) · 44 history records