Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc32…a158 crypto 445 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$774 (-9%) realized −$774 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%426W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$60
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$104
other 7% −$59
finance 6% +$9
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.8% -11.1% 96% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 279 -2.2% -11.5% 96% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 445 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 0% -11.2%
all 445 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -11.2%
10% -20.1% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$774
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses426 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)445 / 445
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 445 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 29h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 29h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 29h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $13 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records