Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc33…eb35 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,447 (+21%) realized +$1,478 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$733
other 8% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +6.0%
≤30d 10 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +6.0%
≤90d 10 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +6.0%
all 10 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 60% +6.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 60% -4.2%
15% -18.7% 50% -13.4%
20% -26.7% 40% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$445 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$969
Realized+$1,478
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$612
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $1,000 $969 −$31 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $557 −$548 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $427 +$124 +29%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $915 +$519 +57%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,024 +$879 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $355 +$670 +188%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $531 −$369 -70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $512 +$213 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $241 −$237 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $635 −$626 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $523 +$353 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 14m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $557 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $550 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $427 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $915 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,903 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1,024 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $355 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $162 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $531 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $512 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $241 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $635 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $523 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $969.39 · official $969.39 (match) · 18 history records