Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbc37…3ed8 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate79%30W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$7
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$3
other 40% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.2% -16.0% 78% 26% -10.7%
≤30d 38 +3.5% -6.4% 79% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 38 +3.5% -6.4% 79% 45% -7.8%
all 38 +3.5% -6.4% 79% 45% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 45% -7.8%
10% -15.3% 34% -16.6%
15% -23.5% 29% -24.7%
20% -31.0% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses30 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $44 +$1 +2%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $42 +$3 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 $0 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$2 +7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $27 +$4 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -46%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 +$3 +26%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $24 −$16 -70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +57%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +42%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 19 $2 −$1 -41%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +50%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +53%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $45 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $44 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $42 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 98¢ $42 23h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $41 24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $41 24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $39 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $39 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $35 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $32 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $30 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $27 4d
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $27 4d
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 94¢ $25 4d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL Egypt 97¢ $25 4d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY Egypt 96¢ $25 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $25 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $23 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No 44¢ $3 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $6 5d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 96¢ $6 5d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 88¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records